更新日期：2015-12-14

Three Priorities of Investing
投資請先考慮這三點

by Charles Cheng, CFA – Clarity Investment Partners
鄭又銓, CFA -可承資本

Approaching the end of 2015 major investment markets around the world have had mixed results for the year, and likely so have most investment portfolios. Around this time banks, brokerage houses, and newspaper columnists start to issue reports and presentations about their outlooks and investment advice for the upcoming year. As we look to make major investment decisions in the future, how much should we take into consideration how much we gained or lost in the past twelve months, or what brokers say going to happen to the world in the near future? Frankly, not very much at all.

First, market returns are completely independent of decisions you made in the past. As for external advice and forecasts for the upcoming year, while some of the information and analysis can be useful, they do not account for random and unpredictable events that can have a sizable effect on your portfolio.

Instead, one should focus on getting the strategic aspects of their portfolio correct before spending too much time on the tactical decisions. To do that, make sure that the following three areas are well covered in your investment process:

2015年即將邁近尾聲，今年全球各大主要投資市場都經歷了喜憂參半的一年，同樣的，對於大部分投資組合來說也是如此。在這個時候，銀行、券商、報紙專欄等，都紛紛刊發有關於新一年的展望，以及投資建議的報告。這些有關過去12個月的收益或損失以及各大券商對全球未來的預測，在我們考慮對未來作出重大投資決定時應佔多大比重？坦白講，我們不需要參考太多。

首先，市場的回報會與過去做的決策全然脫鉤。至於有關來年投資的組合，外部建議或預測，以及一些信息或分析固然有些參考價值，但當一些突如其來或無法預測的事件發生時，這些信息卻毫無用處。

因此，我們應專注於整個的投資組合的戰略決策，而不應花過多時間在戰術上。要做到這一點，請保證你的投資決策過程中已覆蓋了以下三個領域：

1) Make your first priority to control risk.

While we all know that a higher returning asset “should” typically have higher risk than a comparable lower returning asset, as we discussed in our last note, taking lower risks are the key to stronger long term portfolio returns. Because of the mathematics of compounding, if a portfolio of assets falls by -33%, it takes a +50% gain to recover to its original value. If assets fall by -50%, then it takes a +100% gain to recover. This is in addition to possibility of forced selling by the investor either because of margin calls or psychological pressures, which would result in a permanent loss. Therefore, limiting draw-downs is absolutely crucial to the compounded long term growth of assets.

Based on our professional experiences and studies, we have healthy respect for market tendencies to reach extremes, and seek to build portfolios that can weather periods of market turmoil. This means maintaining a reasonable level of diversification, as well as consideration for one’s personal limits on tolerating market movements.

1)把風險控制當作首要任務

雖然我們都知道一個高回報的資產 “應該” 比低回報資產具有較高風險，然而根據我們上一期的觀點，承擔較低風險其實是獲得更穩定長期組合回報的關鍵。由於數學的複利原則，如果一個投資組合的資產下跌 33%，那麼它需要漲幅達到50%才能恢復到其原始值。如果資產跌幅達 50%，那麼它需要一個100%的漲幅才可以收回本金。雪上加霜的是，有時投資者因補倉通知(margin call)或心理壓力等因素被迫平倉從而導致永久性損失。因此，限制跌幅是對資產長期的複利率增長絕對至關重要的。

根據我們的專業經驗和研究結果，對於市場走向極端的趨勢，我們抱與審慎的態度，並以此構建可以抵禦市場動盪時期的投資組合，也就是多元化的投資， 參考個人財力對市場變化的容忍度，以確保我們的投資組合不會為了贏取一點額外回報而處於不必要的風險中。

2) Focus on total asset returns rather than individual trades.

A decent return on an entire portfolio beats an exceptional return on a fraction of the portfolio. Gaining 50% on investment originally 5% of the portfolio while neglecting the other 95% in cash, only results in a +2.5% on capital. Before you ask why we couldn’t have allocated that investment to 100% of the portfolio, bear in mind that a) extraordinary investment opportunities do not come about frequently, and b) an investor is generally considered skillful if he is correct 60% of the time. An investment that can gain +50% if you’re right, can easily lose -50% if you’re wrong. By our principle number 1, it is important to avoid becoming too concentrated in a volatile investment.

A common behavior for many private investors is to take great investment risks with only a small portion of their total assets while holding the rest in deposits, thinking that they’re only risking that smaller portion. However, this actually increases the risk of them having a permanent loss, versus a portfolio of lower risk assets, as there would be a greater chance that are forced to or scared into selling the risky investments at an unfavorable price. Instead, it is a much more sensible sustainable approach to utilize a larger amount of capital in consistent and less speculative investments to achieve the same value of return or higher. Ask yourself how much your portfolio, as currently constructed, has returned in the past and under what market environments, as well as how much it lost in times of market stress.

2）關注總體資產的回報而非某個單一交易

整個投資組合獲得一個良好的收益，勝過小部分資產獲得的優異回報。如果從整個投資組合中拿出 5%的資產進行投資並獲得 50%的回報，而同時剩下 95%的資金作為現金不投資，這樣對於整體資產來說僅僅是 2.5%的增幅。 在你問到為什麼我們不把 100%的資產配置到那個極佳的投資機會之前，請記住以下兩點： a) 特別優質的投資機會並不時常出現； b) 如果一個投資者的正確概率能達到 60%，那麼他已經算是公認的投資能手了。一個回報 50%的投資機會，如果你看準了，那麼你將獲得 50%的收益；而相反如果你看錯了，那麼很輕易的你就將損失 50%的資本。參照我們的第一原則，規避波動性高的投資所帶來的集中風險是非常重要的。你可以參考你現在投資組合，在過去何種市場環境中獲得何種回報，並且在市場壓力時損失多少。

對於許多私人投資者來說，用他們一小部分的資產投資於高風險項目，而同時將餘下的大部分資產作為存款不作投資是很常見的行為。他們認為這樣做他們承擔的風險只是在那小部分資產中。然而，對比使用整體資產進行低風險投資的方法；使用小部分資產進行高風險投資實際上增加了資產永久損失的風險，因為他們將有更大的機會在未來以一個不利的價格被迫賣出這些高風險資產。相反，使用較大部分資本進行穩定且較少投機性的投資，以獲得等值或更高的回報是一個更為合理且可持續的方法。

3) Independent research is the path to superior performance.

Exceptional returns can be earned occasionally when a market has the wrong expectations. For liquid securities, the quoted market prices reflect the amount a buyer is willing to pay or a seller is willing to pay that particular day- therefore, the research and opinions of the investment banks and major fund houses are generally baked into the price at which one can obtain a security. Furthermore, much of that research may be burdened with ulterior profit motives, such as commissions or corporate relationships. Therefore it follows that no one is going to consistently outperform the market by only following the views of the large institutions.

3）獨立的研究是獲得卓越回報的途徑

當市場上有錯誤預期時，可能是獲得優異回報的好時機。對於流通的證券，市場報價反映了一個大買家或大賣家在當日願意支付的金額。因此，投資銀行和大型基金公司的研究和意見，總體上都受到這個證券價格的影響。此外，大多數這類研究，可能背負著不可告人的利潤動機，例如交易佣金或企業關係等。因此如果只是追隨這些大型機構的觀點或建議進行投資，一般很難持續跑贏大市。

By emphasizing risk control, total portfolio returns, and having an independent view to capitalize on market opportunities, you can place yourself on the path to consistently achieving good investment performance.

通過強調風險控制、總體回報以及擁有把握市場的獨立觀點，你就可以置身於持續獲得良好投資業績的康莊大道上了。

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at Clarity Investment Partners, a Hong Kong based independent private investment office that directly manages personal accounts for families and institutions.
www.clarityinvestment.com
鄭先生為可承資本的董事合夥人。可承資本是一家總部設於香港，並專為高淨值家族及法人機構直接管理資產的獨立投資辦公室。
www.clarityinvestment.com/2002738913.html

 

 

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