Four lessons to be learned from Brexit

英國脫歐後學到的四點

by Charles Cheng, CFA – Clarity Investment Partners
鄭又銓, CFA -可承資本

 

 

When British voters voted to leave the European Union in the referendum on June 23rd, the reaction of financial markets was sharp and showed that market participants had been caught off guard. The FTSE 100 UK equities index fell as much at -8.5% intraday. Markets of other countries were staggered as well. The US S&P 500 fell as much as 5% in two days, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index as much as 6.1%. The pound sterling fell around 8% against the US dollar and other currencies also lost ground. News outlets reported on the uncertainties and negative economic consequences resulting from the decision while panicked investors began to pull their money from mutual funds.

當英國選民在6月23日公投贊成離開歐盟後，金融市場反應很激烈，也顯示出投資者對於這個結果的猝不及防。FTSE 英國100指數在盤中下跌8.5%。其他國家的股票市場也受其拖累有所下跌。美國標普500下挫5%,香港恆生指數下跌6.1%。 英鎊兌美元下跌8%，其他一些貨幣也有不同程度的下跌。新聞媒體對脫歐所帶來的不確定性及經濟的負面報導，引起恐慌的投資人開始回贖共同基金。

 

 

What happened next showed that these actions may have been too hasty. By the end of the week equity markets had rebounded and indeed continued to hit new highs. Many investors may have sold out at a loss, as over $17 billion dollars was withdrawn from funds during the week as reported by data provider EPFR, and more in direct share sales.

接下來發生的事情表明以上這些行動可能過於草率了。截至那週末，股票市場已反彈並繼續創出新高。許多投資者也許已經在虧損的時候賣出，因為根據數據提供商EPFR的報告，在英國作出脫歐決定的那個禮拜有超過170億美元的資金撤出共同基金，而直接的股票出售更是大於這個數字。

 

 

Here are some potential lessons to be learned from this event from an investment point of view.

從一個投資者的角度，以下是從這次事件中我們學到的一些潛在教訓.

 

 

1) When markets are complacent, prepare for the unexpected

Before the vote, the Pound was trading at year to date highs. Equity market volatility was at depressed levels. It was clear that markets were complacent about the possibility of the UK leaving the EU. In this situation the upside is limited in a positive scenario and the downside may be steep in a negative scenario. When the result was not as expected both equities and currencies sold off harshly.

1) 當市場看似無事時，準備意外情況的發生

在本次英國公投前，英鎊的匯率為年初至今的最高位。股票市場波動率也在低水平。這些情況都表明市場認為英國脫歐的可能性很低從而毫無擔憂。在這樣的情況下，上行空間被限制在一個積極的情境下，而下行在消極的情境中或許會很陡峭。如果結果是不符合預期的，那麼股票和貨幣都將被嚴重拋售。

 

 

2) Anticipate not only the consequences of events but also the reactions to those events

Market movements following major market events are not only influenced by the event itself but by the response of policymakers. Part of the reason that markets rebounded so quickly was that central banks around the world moved swiftly to prevent a panic in the financial system. The ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve all announced that they would supply liquidity to the markets in the form of loans to banks and currency swap lines with each other. Several central banks hinted that the turmoil following the vote would impact their future rate hiking decisions, providing more fuel for the Bulls.

2) 不僅要預見事件的結果更要預見對這些事件所帶來的反應

事件發生後市場的一些大波動不僅是由事件本身導致的，決策者的反應也影響市場的走向。這次市場反彈如此迅速的部分原因是各國央行行動十分迅速以防止金融系統恐慌。歐洲央行、英國央行和美聯儲均宣布他們將為銀行提供流動性 — 以貸款及設立貨幣互換額度為之。多國央行曾暗示公投後的市場混亂將影響其升息的決定，這也為牛市提供了更多燃料。

 

 

3) Don’t overreact to news

When news happens, it’s usually too late to trade on it. When most investors sold out of their equity positions, many would have gotten out at around the lowest point. In the trading immediately following the vote, the FTSE 100 Index opened at its lowest point on the day and rose from there. By the end of the month, the index had risen around 13% meaning that investors who panicked ended up far worse than investors who decided to stay the course.

3) 不要對新聞報導過度反應

當新聞報導某一事件時，再去交易已是為時已晚。當大部分投資者拋售其股票倉位時，他們中的許多人都是在最低位出售的。接著在公投次日的交易，FTSE100指數以盤中最低點開出，之後該指數便持續上漲。截至6月底，該指數上漲13%左右，意味著那些由於恐慌拋售的投資者比按兵不動的損失慘重許多。

 

 

4) Timing the market is very hard

Even had one correctly predicted the outcome of the vote they would have also had to correctly buy back in within the first two days in order to profit from their foresight.

While the vote will likely have a real economic impact as well as result in some political risks, the impact to the global economy in the short term is uncertain and is likely balanced by the actions of central banks. The IMF trimmed its growth forecast for global GDP by 0.1 percent and said that the impact to economies outside of the euro area would be very limited. For a long term investor, this would be just a minor consideration for making investment decisions.

4) 尋找最佳進出市場的時機是非常困難的

即時一個投資者正確的預測了這次公投的結果，他們同時也需要正確地在頭兩天補倉以從他們的預見中獲利。

 

儘管這次公投很可能對實體經濟產生影響並帶來一些政治風險，但是此次事件在短期內對於全球經濟的衝擊還是不確定的，並且各國央行的舉措也可能平衡掉這些影響。國際貨幣基金組織對未來全球GDP的預測下調了0.1%，並表示此次英國脫歐對於歐元區以外的經濟影響是非常有限的。作為一個長線投資者，本次事件應只是其投資決策的次要考慮因素。

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at Clarity Investment Partners, a Hong Kong based independent private investment office that directly manages personal accounts for families and institutions. www.clarityinvestment.com

鄭先生為可承資本的董事合夥人。可承資本是一家總部設於香港，並專為高淨值家族及法人機構直接管理資產的獨立投資辦公室。www.clarityinvestment.com/2002738913.html

 

 

 

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