More on the Upcoming US Election

再來談一談即將到來的美國大選

 

by Charles Cheng, CFA – Clarity Investment Partners
鄭又銓, CFA -可承資本

 

The upcoming US election is perceived as biggest source of potential market volatility in the near term. Previously, we wrote about the historical investment implications of previous elections. With November 8^th nearing, here are some more thoughts on the potential implications of this one.

即將到來的美國大選被認為是近期市場潛在動盪的最主要來源。上一期我們通過歷史數據討論了美國大選對投資的影響。隨著11月8日的到來，我們對於這次大選將帶來的潛在影響多了一些看法。

 

 

1) Clinton is heavily favored

As most people already know, Hillary Clinton currently has a large lead over Donald Trump. Election forecasting site 538 put Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at 86.9% as of October 21 estimating her electoral vote advantage of Donald Trump at 343 vs 194. Similarly, election-betting sites have her chances of winning at 83.7%, taking into account any unforeseen circumstances that may happen leading up to the vote.

While many will make comparisons to the unexpected result of the Brexit vote, UK polls actually had the two sides in a tight race before the referendum took place. The FT poll of polls right before Brexit at the vote at 48% “remain” and 46% “leave”. In contrast, 538 estimates the popular vote in the US as 49.7% in favor of Clinton and 43.1% in favor of Trump (the remainder goes to third party candidates).

• 希拉蕊被一致看好

大多數人都已經知道，希拉蕊目前的支持率遠遠領先於川普。大選預測網站538在10月21日時預測其獲勝機率為86.9%，即希拉蕊與川普的獲票數分別為343及194。同樣，選舉投注站預測其獲勝機率為83.7%，這已是考慮到了任何可能發生意外的情況。

 雖然很多人會將英國脫歐這一出乎意料的結果與美國大選相比較，然而在全民公投前，雙方實際上處於勢均力敵的狀態。金融時報在脫歐前的民意調查中發現，48%的民意傾向於“留歐”而46%則支持“脫歐”。相比之下，媒體FiveThirtyEight.com預測民眾的支持率為49.7%支持希拉蕊而43.1%支持特朗普（其餘的偏向第三黨候選人）。

 

 

2) A win by Trump will likely cause volatility in markets

Both the surprise nature of a Trump win and the uncertainty inspired by the candidate’s perceived erratic behavior could cause a violent reaction in the Worlds’ stock markets. Professor Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan looked at the relationship between changes in forecast odds of the election result and concurrent changes in the S&P 500 and estimated that the immediate market performance under a Trump victory could be 10-12 percent lower than under a Clinton victory.

• 川普若獲勝將很有可能造成市場動盪

川普獲勝的驚訝性質以及該候選人公認的不穩定行為導致的不安感會同時造成全球股市劇烈反應。密歇根大學的賈斯汀·沃爾弗斯教授比照了預測網站對於選舉結果的預測值以及標普500的實時變化間的關係，他估計川普獲勝的話市場收益將比希拉蕊獲勝低10-12%。

 

 

3) However, the initial move may not reflect the subsequent performance

To most investors, the initial reaction of stock market to events is typically not as important as its subsequent performance in the weeks and months that follow. In this case, what will follow the election is anything but clear.

• 然而，市場最初的走向也許並不代表此後發展的趨勢

對於多數投資者而言，股市在重大事件發生時的最初反應，其重要性通常不如其接下來幾週及幾個月的表現。在這種情況下，大選後將發生什麼我們無法預知。

 

 

Despite a likely immediately negative reaction to a Trump win, his policies appear to be stimulative to the economy in the short term with the bigger risks only taking place in the medium to long term. Mr. Trump proposes to cut the top US marginal tax rate to 25% from 39.6% as well as other tax reduction measures. With the help of a Republican controlled Congress he would be sure to get at least part of this signed into law. While this may be fiscally irresponsible and increase the deficit at a time where interest rates may be coming up , this would be a government granted boost to GDP growth in the short term. Mr. Trump’s other policies that may be potentially harmful, such as harsh immigration control policies and trade protectionism, would take more time for their impact to be really felt on the economy.

儘管川普獲勝將很有可能對股市產生即時的負面影響，然而其政策似乎能在短期內刺激景氣，但更大的風險將出現在中長期。川普的提案包括把美國最高邊際稅率從39.6%削減至25%以及其他一些減稅措施，在共和黨控制的國會幫助下，他至少能使其提案的一部分被寫進法律。雖然在財政上來講他的提案是不負責任的，並且在利率上升時將增加財政赤字，但是在短期卻能成為一個政府給予的推動GDP增長的助力。川普其他的政策也許存在潛在危害，例如嚴厲的移民管制政策以及貿易保護主義，然而這些危害不會在短期內對經濟產生影響。

 

 

Ms. Clinton on the other hand, proposes to increase spending on public services, which would be stimulative, and fund it with tax increases on high earners. While the net effect of these policies is also aimed at increasing growth, the likelihood of it passing may be reduced by what may be a hostile Congress, currently controlled by Republicans.

另一方面，希拉蕊提出加大公共服務領域的支出 (這對經濟將起到促進作用)，這些支出應該是來自於高收入群多付的稅金。這些政策的實際效果同樣也是為了起到促進經濟的增長，而這個提案將來能通過的可能性也許會因為由富有敵意的共和黨控制而減小。

 

 

4) Without a solid plan for the elections, investors are better off ignoring it

Recall that markets reacted very negatively initially to the outcome of the Brexit vote but then sharply rebounded. Even investors were somehow given perfect foresight of the outcome of the Brexit referendum before it took place, many likely would not have profited.

With the kind of uncertainties listed above, it is very difficult to predict what medium term impact each candidate would have both on the real economy and on financial markets if elected. The performance of markets is still likely to depend more on non-politically influenced factors. Unless you as an investor have a clearly defined and sensible plan for profiting from the election no matter the outcome, you are better off ignoring it completely and focusing on a long term investing strategy.

• 投資者如果對於選舉沒有一個完整的計劃的話，那麼最好就忽略它吧

我們還記得英國脫歐時市場對於這一結果最初的反應是非常負面的，但隨後不久市場馬上大幅反彈。即使有投資者在某種程度上掌握了脫歐公投的結果，他們中的很多人也許也不會因此獲利。

 

鑑於上述各種不確定因素，想要預測這兩個候選人哪一個獲勝將對中期實體經濟以及金融市場造成影響是非常困難的。市場表現仍可能更多的取決於非政治影響的因素。除非作為一個投資者你已經有一個明確的、合理的計劃，無論投票結果如何都能從中獲利，不然的話最好還是完全無視它而專注於長期投資策略。

 

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at Clarity Investment Partners, a Hong Kong based independent private investment office that directly manages personal accounts for families and institutions. www.clarityinvestment.com

鄭先生為可承資本的董事合夥人。可承資本是一家總部設於香港，並專為高淨值家族及法人機構直接管理資產的獨立投資辦公室。www.clarityinvestment.com/2002738913.html

 

 

 

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