Gold, Inflation, Rates

黃金，通脹，利率

by Charles Cheng, CFA – Clarity Investment Partners
鄭又銓, CFA -可承資本

 

With stocks at multi-year highs and bonds with low yields in what looks to be a rising interest rate environment, increasing attention is being paid towards investing in assets such as gold, precious metals, and other real assets. We take a quick look at the history of returns of these kinds of investments and the role they play in investor portfolios using data from the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbooks.

當股票多年處於高位，債券孳息率處於低位，在這樣一個利率上升的環境，投資者正越來越關注黃金、貴金屬及其他的實物資產的投資。讓我們從瑞信全球投資回報年鑑的數據來快速了解這些資產類別的歷史回報以及他們在投資組合中扮演的角色。

 

 

First, it’s important to note that unlike stocks and bonds, gold and precious metals are assets provide no investment return through interest payments or claims on corporate earnings. Therefore its performance over very long periods has been much less than that of financial assets.

首先，值得注意的是，和股票以及債券不同，黃金和貴金屬不是通過利息支付或獲得企業利潤來提供投資回報的。因此，其長期表現是遠低於金融資產的。

 

Source: CS Return Yearbook 2012

來源：瑞信2012年回報年鑑

 

As shown in the figure above, there have been 30, 50, and even 70 year periods where gold did not return a real investment return (vs the GBP). That chart also shows different periods where the pound and other major currencies around the world were fixed and unfixed to gold- the abandonment of the British gold standard after World War I, the return to the gold bullion standard in 1925, and its subsequent collapse during the Great Depression in 1931. After the Bretton Woods monetary agreement in 1944, major currencies were fixed to the US dollar which had maintained its tie to Gold (although it had previously been devalued).

上圖顯示，過去的111年間曾有30年、50年及70年這三個時間段黃金的回報低於實際投資回報（對比英鎊）。該圖還顯示了英鎊以及其他貨幣與黃金有固定匯率或沒有固定匯率的不同時期的表現。第一次世界大戰後市場停用了英國黃金標準，而在1925年恢復了金錠標準，然而該標準在1931年大蕭條時期崩塌。在1944年的布雷頓森林貨幣協議後，世界上的主要貨幣都與美元有固定匯率，而美元一直以來與黃金價值綁定（雖然此前美元遭遇貶值）。

 

 

This ended in 1971 when the US ended gold convertibility of the dollar and floated its exchange rate. The price of gold soared relative to the dollar as a high inflationary period arrived. Even so, by the year 2000, gold had come back down to earth, and not appreciated in real terms (as in above inflation) for around 30 years.

這一情況在1971年結束，當時美國停止了黃金對美元的固定匯率兌換，並使其匯率波動。在隨後的高通脹期，黃金的價格相對美元飆升。即使如此，至2000年，黃金價格回落，並在這30年間從未有真正的升值（在上述的通脹環境中）。

 

 

During this volatile 111 year period, the price of gold gained an (geometric) average of 1.0% a year in real terms. Over the same period, Equities rose 5.4%, bonds 1.7%, and housing 1.3% in real terms.

在這動盪的111年間，黃金的價格保持在平均每年1.0%（幾何上）的真正漲幅。在相同的時期，股票每年平均收益為5.4%，債券為1.7%以及住房為1.3%。

 

 

But gold has a characteristic that can make it valuable to portfolios. It performs well in certain times that other assets don’t. In times of severe deflation (minus 3.5%) gold has averaged a real return of 12.2%. In times of severe inflation (greater than 18%), gold averaged a real return close to zero, one of the few assets to maintain their value. Versus average housing prices across countries, gold has offered similar but less consistent returns and a higher correlation to inflation. When inflation was high but not at an extreme, it actually produced a real return: +2.8% for inflation between 4.5~8% and +4.4% for inflation ranging 8%~18%.

不過黃金有一個特點可是使其對投資組合有價值。它在某些其他資產表現不佳的特定時期表現良好。在嚴重通縮（負3.5%）時，黃金的平均回報為12.2%，而在嚴重通脹（高於18%）時，黃金的平均實質回報接近於零，為少數保持其價值的資產之一。相對於各國的住房價格，黃金的回報與其類似但是欠穩定，而且與通脹的相關性更高。當通脹高漲但未達到一個極致時，黃金確有實質的回報: 當通脹介於4.5~8%時，回報是2.8%；當通脹在8~18%之間時，回報是4.4%。

 

 

Finally, we note how gold and other real assets, like financial assets are sensitive to rising interest rate environment. The above chart from the 2016 CS yearbook shows that gold has a real return almost 5% higher in the two years after rate falls than rate hikes. There is a similar effect in other precious metals and property assets.

最後，我們注意到黃金與其他實物資產如金融資產對於升息環境的敏感性。從瑞信2016年鑑摘取的上圖中顯示了在利率下跌後的兩年，其真實回報幾乎比升息時高出5%。其他金屬及房產等資產也有類似的效應。

 

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at Clarity Investment Partners, a Hong Kong based independent private investment office that directly manages personal accounts for families and institutions. www.clarityinvestment.com

鄭先生為可承資本的董事合夥人。可承資本是一家總部設於香港，並專為高淨值家族及法人機構直接管理資產的獨立投資辦公室。www.clarityinvestment.com/2002738913.html

 

 

 

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