Thoughts Regarding a Possible New Fed Chairman

關於新美聯儲主席人選一些想法

by Charles Cheng, CFA
鄭又銓, CFA

 

The position of US Federal Reserve Chairman, one of the most influential in terms of impacting the US and world economies, is set to be selected in the coming days by US President Donald Trump. As of the time of writing this article, he had not yet made a decision, telling reporters that he was “very, very close” to announcing his choice.

美國總統唐納德·川普將於未來幾日內選出未來美國聯邦儲備 (FED)委員會主席，這個對於美國以及全球經濟至關重要的職位之一。在寫本文之時，川普還未作出決定，他告訴記者，他已“非常、非常接近”於宣布該人選。

 

 

The frontrunners appear to be Stanford economist John Taylor (famous for his Taylor Rule for monetary policy), and Jerome Powell (a current Fed governor). Current Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, whose current term is up in February, also remains a possibility to retain her position, with other candidates being Gary Cohn (director of the White House National Economic Council) and Kevin Warsh (a former Fed governor). The ultimate choice for the position could have a significant impact on expectations of future interest rates, and by extension, the bond market.

目前看來一眾候選人中領跑的是斯坦福大學經濟學家約翰·泰勒(他以其關於貨幣政策的泰勒規則而聞名)，以及Jerome Powell (一位現任美聯儲理事)。目前任期將終於明年2月的現任美聯儲主席耶倫(Janet Yellen)仍保持了連任的可能性，而其他候選人也包括了Gary Cohn(白宮國民經濟委員會主席)以及Keven Warsh (前美聯儲理事)。該職位的最終當選者將對未來利率的預期以及債券市場產生重大影響。

 

 

Figure 1: Policy Rate expectations, 30 Sep 2017

图1：政治利率預期，2017年9月30

Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 4Q17

來源：摩根大通2017第四季度市場指南

 

 

Before her selection as Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet Yellen had a reputation as being “dovish”, on the side of lower rates and more accommodative policy. Her nomination in October 2013 was welcomed by bond market participants in a time when markets were unsettled by a debt ceiling showdown in the US Congress. Before he was elected, Donald Trump repeatedly criticized her for keeping rates too low. However, during her term, she struck a balance, raising rates when employment rose, while still taking a measured pace in order to not to derail the recovery.

在當選為美聯儲主席之前，耶倫支持較低的利率以及更寬鬆的政策，其“鴿派”名聲由此而來。在美國國會債務上限攤薄的市場不穩定時期，她在2013年10月的提名受到了債券市場參與者的歡迎。在川普當選美國總統之前，曾多次批評她將利率保持太低。然而，在她的任期內，她取得了一種平衡，當就業率上升時有計劃地穩步提高利率，以免破壞經濟復甦。

 

 

Figure 2: Timeline of Janet Yellen as Fed Chairman

圖2：耶倫作為美聯儲主席的時間表

Source: Economist

來源：經濟學者期刊

 

 

Among the two frontrunning candidates, both Republicans, Jerome Powell is seen as a status quo choice while Taylor the more disruptive one. Powell is a current member of the FOMC and has never dissented from any decision of the committee since 2012, and therefore is likely to continue his predecessor’s policies. Taylor on the other hand has been critical of the Fed over the years for being too loose in using unconventional monetary policy and also for waiting too long to raise rates. Certain versions of the monetary policy rule that Taylor is famous for also call for rates much higher than the current level. Therefore, the bond markets may take a Taylor nomination negatively.

在兩位領跑的候選者中—兩位皆為共和黨人—Jerome Powell被認為在當選後將會維持美聯儲現有政策，而泰勒（Taylor）則會顛覆現狀。Powell是聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的現任成員，並自2012年以來從未反對過委員會的任何決定。另一方面，泰勒多年來一直對美聯儲使用非常規貨幣政策的過於寬鬆政策以及等待太久時間才提高利率的做法持批評的態度。泰勒著名的貨幣政策的幾個版本中要求的利率水平也比目前的高得多。因此，債券市場可能不會支持泰勒的提名。

 

 

Going forward, President Trump also has the power to further reshape the FOMC, with four other seats set to be replaced in the coming year. The question is whether he will take steps to appease the significant segment of his party that is ideologically in favor tighter money and less government intervention, or favor a Fed that would help him stimulate the economy. Either outcome would offer a strong clue on his priorities for managing the economy as well as how the administration could respond to an economic crisis.

展望未來，川普總統也將有權力進一步重塑聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)，因為該委員會的四個席位將在明年被替換。問題是他是否會採取一些步驟以取悅他政黨中一些重要成員，那就是在意識形態上支持更緊縮的貨幣政策以及減少政府干預；或是支持一個幫他刺激經濟的美聯儲。任何一個結果都將使我們對其選擇管理經濟的優先事項以及政府行政部門將如何應對經濟危機提供一個很好的線索。

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office.

鄭先生為總部設於香港的一家獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。

 

 

 

 

 

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