Learning to accept and embrace market volatility, redux

學習接受並掌握市場波動，重溫

by Charles Cheng, CFA
鄭又銓, CFA

 

 

Previously, I’ve written about how keeping the long view helps investors to weather these periods of market turmoil and avoid investment mistakes. This seems like a good time to revisit that and update the figures. As markets failed to recover in November, most investors around the world have had a rough year. The MSCI World ACWI Index was down -7.4% YTD and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down -16.3% as of November 25th. These losses can sometimes be enough to make some investors fearful of putting too much of their savings in the financial markets. However, being under-invested can be a much costlier mistake.

在此之前，我曾寫過關於如何保持長遠觀點有助於投資者度過市場動盪並避免投資失誤的文章。目前似乎是重新審視這一觀點的好時機，並就此更新數據。由於11月市場未能復甦，全球大多數投資者都度過了艱難的一年。截至11月25日，MSCI世界ACWI指數年初至今下跌7.4％，MSCI新興市場指數下跌16.3％。這些損失有時足以讓一些投資者害怕將過多的儲蓄金投入金融市場。然而，投資不足也可能是一個更加昂貴的錯誤。

 

 

In the long term, the gain or a loss in a single year does not matter as much as consistent returns over time. On average over the past century or several decades, inflation for many countries around the world has roughly been around 3-4%. At these rates, even a 30% gain on the total amount of one’s assets in a single year would be wiped out in purchasing terms within seven to eight years if the assets did not continue to be invested for a return.

從長遠來看，隨著時間的推移，單一年度的收益和虧損與長期的穩定回報相比並不重要。在過去一個世紀或幾十年，全球各國的通脹平均值約為3-4%。按此通脹速率，如果資產沒有持續的得到再投資，即使在某個單一年度的回報達到30%，這些回報也會在七至八年中被通脹逐漸消耗。

 

 

While real estate investments provide somewhat of a hedge against inflation, liquid investments are also a key component to preserving wealth. However, for the average investor, financial markets tend to be extremely difficult to time, especially if one is moving in and out of their positions frequently. Research shows that flows into mutual funds are the highest during market peaks, and fewest during market lows, exactly the opposite result from good timing. Often, people are willing to take a lot of market risk after markets have gone up for a while, and completely unwilling to take risks if the markets have entered a prolonged slump. If they are too fearful or hurt due to a market decline they may never get back into the market, leading to permanent loss. These tendencies make it difficult for many investors to enjoy consistent returns.

儘管房地產投資在某些程度上對通脹具有一定避險作用，投資於流動性資產也是資產保值的一個重要組成部分。然而，對於一般投資者，特別是進出市場較頻繁時，是很難去判斷資本市場的最佳投資時機。研究顯示，在市場的巔峰時投入共同基金的資金最多，而在市場低迷時的投資資金最少。這個模式與良好的進場時機正好相反。通常，人們在市場上漲一段時間後才開始願意承擔大量市場風險，卻不願在市場已經進入一段長時間低迷狀態後冒風險。如果由於市場下跌使得這些投資者太害怕或損失太慘重，他們也許永遠不會重新進入市場，並導致永久虧損。這樣的投資模式使投資者很難擁有穩定的回報。

 

 

Chart 1: Investors tend to get in and out at the worst times
表一：投資者往往在最差的時機進出市場

Source: JP Morgan, Guide to Markets Asia 3Q 2018
來源：摩根大通，亞洲市場指南2018年3季度

 

The good news is that global financial markets provide an avenue for such returns, provided that one’s investment horizon is long enough, and have the ability to stay within a consistent and diversified investment plan. In Chart 2 below, we see that the combined securities markets around the world have outpaced inflation for over the past 100 years. Global markets have persevered through major wars and disasters due to continuing economic growth through capital formation and technological progress. Equities have had the highest return of all major asset classes since 1900, with the combined equity markets returning an annualized 4.4% over inflation, while bonds have returned an annualized 1.6% over inflation.

好消息是，如果一個投資者的投資期限足夠長，且能夠保持一致且多元化的投資計劃，那麼全球金融市場將對獲得這樣穩定的回報創造有利條件。 從下文的表三我們可以看到，如果把世界各地的證券市場合併來看，在過去的100年，其回報是跑贏通脹的。資本的形成以及技術的進步使得經濟持續增長，這使得全球金融市場得以在經歷過重大戰爭及災難後依舊欣欣向榮.自1900年至今，在所有主要資產類別中股票的投資回報最高。把全球股市合併來看，其年化回報在扣除通脹率後為4.4%，而債券的年化回報在扣除通脹後為1.6%。

 

 

Having a mix of asset classes also helps to make the returns more consistent over time, as in the most recent period covered, from 2000-2014, global bonds have returned 5.1% over inflation while equities returned 1.3%. It’s worth noting that the real return of equities was still positive despite the period starting with and including two of the biggest global stock market crashes ever. Starting from 1900, an investment in the global equity markets would have increased by 148 times by 2014 even after taking into account inflation.

擁有不同資產類別的投資組合也能幫助在長期投資中獲得較穩定的回報。自2000至2014年，全球債券回報率在扣除通脹後為5.1%，而同樣的時期，股票的回報率為1.3%。值得一提的是，儘管上述的時間段的開始以及中間經歷了最大的兩次全球股市股市崩盤，股票的實際回報依舊是盈利的。而由1900年至2014年，全球股市的回報率，在扣除通脹後為148倍。

 

 

Regarding individual countries, certain markets have outperformed the combined global markets for certain stretches of time, but tend not to have such outperformance last over all time horizons. For example, the stock markets of Taiwan and Japan outperformed global averages significantly until 1990 and then subsequently underperformed. The most consistent outperformer has been the US equity market, but even then, there is no guarantee that it will continue. Having a broad mix of countries tend to smooth out much of the boom and bust characteristics of individual markets, despite most countries being simultaneously affected during financial crises.

在某些時期，某些個別國家的金融市場表現超越了全球整體市場回報，但並非在所有時間跨度都有如此出色表現。舉一個例子，台灣與日本的股市在1990年前都明顯跑贏全球股市平均水平，然而之後該兩國股市表現卻不及其他市場。美國市場在過去曾經穩定的跑贏全球股市，但即使如此，無人可保證這將持續下去。儘管大部分國家的股票市場在全球性金融危機中都會同時受到影響，但是若資產分散投資於不同國家的股市，通常能使資產組合受到個別市場的大漲與大跌的衝擊降低。

 

Chart 2: Global financial markets have well outpaced inflation for over 100 years
表2：全球金融市場已經跑贏通脹超過100年

 

Real returns over Inflation:

Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018
來源：瑞信2018全球投資回報年鑑

 

Little has changed from the last time there was a significant market correction. Investors should learn to accept and embrace market volatility as a prerequisite for beating inflation and preserving wealth. A disciplined investment plan, either self-managed or through an advisor, can help keep one consistently invested through the years by avoiding knee jerk reactions to market moves.

從上次出現重大市場調整至今，情況幾乎沒怎麼變化。投資者應學會接受並擁抱市場波動，並以此作為打擊通脹和保持財富的先決條件。一個嚴格的投資計劃，無論是投資者自我管理的還是通過投資顧問，都可以避免對市場行為的膝跳反應來幫助保持長期投資。

 

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。該文章不應被視為投資建議。

 

 

 

 

 

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