Control what you can control

控制你可以控制的

by Charles Cheng, CFA
鄭又銓, CFA

 

 

With the volatile financial markets of the 2018, there may be a lot of uncertainty among investors in making their investing and financial decisions. It is worth pointing out that many factors that influence the markets are inherently unknowable, such as future decisions of unpredictable government leaders. This makes making decisions based on forecasts and personal guesses not so valuable a process. Fortunately, there are many simple things that investors can control to improve their investment performance.

隨著2018年金融市場的波動，投資者在做出投資和財務決策時可能會有很多不確定因素。值得指出的是，影響市場的許多因素本質上是不可知的，例如不可預測的政府領導人在未來的政策。這使得基於預測和個人猜測做出的投資決策不是一個有價值的過程。幸運的是，投資者可以控制許多簡單的事情來改善他們的投資回報。

 

Previously, we’ve discussed common sense actions for investors such as sticking to a sensible investment plan, taking appropriate amounts of risk and keeping unnecessary costs low. People who do the above have done most of the work to enjoy sustainable long-term investment returns. In practice, investors are not usually implementing these things in isolation. Usually they are engaging a broker, advisor, or even friends for ideas and instruments to invest in. Sometimes this complicates the process.

在此之前，我們已經討論了投資者的常識性行為，例如堅持合理的投資計劃，承擔適當的風險並保持低成本。能做到以上幾點的人士，已經完成了使其獲得可持續的長期投資回報所需的大部分工作。在實踐中，投資者通常不會單獨地進行這些事情。通常他們會聘請經紀人、顧問甚至是朋友來為其投資，而有時這樣做會使流程複雜化。

 

Brokers and bankers are usually compensated overtly by trading commissions and not so openly by kickbacks or retrocessions, or by taking a trading spread. That doesn’t mean that they have bad intentions, but however their most direct economic incentive is more to do the trade than to find the best idea for the client. Therefore, there are some basic actions investors should take when presented with an idea in order to protect themselves.

經紀人和銀行家通常通過交易佣金獲得公開的收益，以及回扣等不那麼公開的進項，又或是通過交易差價獲得收益。這並不意味著他們對投資者有不好的意圖，但是他們最直接的經濟誘因是多做交易而不是為客戶找到最好的投資想法。因此，投資者面對經紀人或銀行家提出的投資想法時，應採取一些基本行動以保護自己。

 

First, they should find if the idea has a comparable substitute investment to see whether they can get a similar performance for much cheaper. Passive funds, like index funds or ETFs can have fees that can be 0.5% to 1.5% cheaper to actively managed mutual funds. Abnormally high fees for a similar investment performance can be a sign that the fee level was marked up for a kick back to the advisor or broker.

首先，他們應該試圖尋找這個投資想法是否具有類似的替代投資，以確定他們是否可以以更便宜的價格獲得類似的表現。被動基金，如指數基金或ETF，可以收取比積極管理的共同基金便宜0.5％至1.5％的費用。若投資回報相似而費用異常高昂，則可能表明該費用因為顧問或經紀人的回扣而標高。

 

Second, investors should themselves be able to understand and describe the investment idea in simple terms in terms of payout and costs. Unusually complex structures, such as those found in certain structured products or insurance schemes often can hide large fees or poorly disclosed risks. A popular type of structured product in Hong Kong, accumulators, made headlines when they went bust in the 2008 crisis with the buyers being unaware of the potential magnitude of their leverage during down markets.

其次，投資者應該能簡單從支出和成本方面基本地理解並表述所要投資項目的投資理念。不尋常的複雜結構，例如在某些結構性產品或保險計劃中所見的產品結構，通常可能隱藏大量費用或風險披露不足。在香港有一種頗為流行的結構性產品，累計股票期權，在2008年危機爆發時成為了頭條新聞，因為買家不知道在低迷市場中該結構性產品所隱含的槓桿幅度可能很大。

 

Third, investors should always have some amount of skepticism of any investment idea, particularly ones that seem too straightforward in reasoning. For example, a simple investment recommendation might be to buy a stock of company because the business outlook appears to be bright for that industry. However, something like that which is well known publicly is likely baked into the stock price. It is really the unexpected developments that will really drive performance going forward. Which means an investor would need to be right about something the daily buyers and sellers in the market don’t already know or understand in order to outperform.

第三，投資者應該對任何投資理念持懷疑態度，特別是那些看似過於簡單的投資理念。例如，一個簡單的投資建議可能是購買公司股票，因為該行業的業務前景似乎很被看好。然而，這些眾所周知的事情可能已經被記入了股票價格，而且真正意想不到的發展才會真正推動業績向前發展。這意味著投資者需要對市場上人們還不知道或理解的事情保持正確的判斷從而跑贏大市。

 

All three of the above requires some understanding of investment concepts and practices, so one should always seek to improve their investment knowledge, even when using advisors. Additionally, as consumers of financial services products, investors should also have an expectation of what proper ethical behavior should be from their service providers. Below is a Statement of Investor Rights provided by the CFA Institute that should help in this understanding.

以上三點都需要投資者對投資概念和實踐有一些理解，因此即使使用顧問，也應始終尋求提高其本身的投資知識。此外，作為金融服務產品的消費者，投資者還應期望其服務提供商應採取適當的道德行為。以下是CFA協會提供的投資者權利聲明，可以幫助我們更好地理解服務供應者所應做到的道德準則。

 

Source: CFA Institute

來源：特許金融分析師協會

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。該文章不應被視為投資建議。

 

 

 

 

 

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