What is the “best fit” investment strategy

何為“最佳匹配”投資策略

by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

In previous articles, we’ve emphasized that one of the most important things asset holders can do with their capital is to maintain their exposure to financial markets over the long term. The way that it is achieved is less important, as investors can be successful with a wide variety of investment styles. Rather than looking for what is the “best” strategy, it’s often more important to find the “best fit”.

在之前的文章中，我們強調了資產持有人可以用其資本做的最重要的事情之一，就是長期保持其對金融市場的投資。實現這一目標是用哪種方法並不那麼重要，因為投資者可以通過多種投資方式獲得成功。與其尋找什麼是“最佳”策略，不如尋找“最佳匹配”更為重要。

 

What does “best fit” mean? For us, it’s the strategy that makes sense given the one’s own circumstances and background in investing. A good fitting strategy is one that keeps the investor engaged, disciplined, and applicable to both good and bad environments, and therefore is sustainable over the long term.

“最佳匹配”是什麼意思？對於我們來說，這是一種鑑於個人情況和投資背景來說有意義的策略。一種合適的策略是指使投資者保持參與度、自律並且於良好以及惡劣的投資環境中都適用的策略，因此對於長期投資來說是有可持續性的。

 

For example, buy and hold stock picking is widely accepted as a sensible strategy and, depending on the investor, can produce outstanding returns. But consistently picking the stocks that outperform their index is not an easy task. Numerous research papers have shown that a small proportion of stocks contribute most of the return of an index. A study by Vanguard found that over a thirty-year period, 47% of stocks in a broad US index actually lost value, and 30% by more than half. 7% of stocks returned over 1000% each, pulling up the average return of stocks in the index to 387%, while the median return of stocks was only 7%. Clearly, the chances of underperforming the index while stock picking is very high.

例如，買入並持有股票作為一種明智的策略已被廣泛接受，並且根據投資者的不同，可以產生非常出色的回報。但是，持續挑選表現優於指數的股票並非易事。許多研究論文表明，一般都是一小部分股票提升了指數的收益率。Vanguard的一項研究發現，在三十年的時間裡，美國股市指數中有47％的股票的實際價值縮水，而30％的股票縮水一半以上。而股市中 7％的股票回報率超過1000％，它們將指數中的股票平均回報率提高到了387％，而與此同時，股票的中位數回報率僅為7％。顯然，通過挑選個別股票作投資的方法是有很大概率會跑輸大盤的。

 

Source: Vanguard, How to increase the odds of owning the few stocks that drive returns, Feb 2019

If an investor does not have the knowledge, patience, and spare time to dig deep into each individual company, they are not likely to succeed in stock picking. Going one step further, if they can only maintain the enthusiasm for doing the work during bull markets when they are making gains or are panicked into selling their positions when they are taking losses, then any success is also not sustainable.

如果一個投資者不具備知識、耐心和業餘時間來深入研究每個公司，那麼他們就不可能成功進行股票挑選。再往前走一步，如果他們只能保持在牛市中獲利時的工作熱情，或者在承受虧損時被驚慌地賣出部位，那麼任何成功都是不可持續的。

 

The majority of personal investors are not going to have the time or expertise to implement a sustainable stock picking or systematic investment strategy without the help of a dedicated advisor. In these cases, passively investing^*註 in the broad market with a predetermined plan makes more sense. The level of engagement required is far less without the requirement to outperform the market. More time can then be spent getting the important big picture items right, such as setting an appropriate level of risk taking and asset exposure, while minimizing transaction costs.

如果沒有專門顧問的幫助，大多數個人投資者沒有時間或專業知識來實施可持續的選股或系統的投資策略。在這種情況下，按照預定計劃在廣闊的市場上進行被動投資^*註 更有意義。在不要求跑贏市場的情況下，所需的參與程度要少得多。更多的時間可以用於正確把握宏觀方向，例如設定適當的風險承擔程度和資產曝險，同時最大程度地降低交易成本。

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。該文章不應被視為投資建議。

 

 

*註: passively investing

“被動投資”是指一種買進持有的投資策略，旨在通過保持最低的交易頻率，來最大化長期回報。 簡單講，被動投資有以下的特點：低頻下單，長期投資。比起耗時費工的研究策略，不如選擇穩穩投資整體股票市場，像是購買指數型基金（ETF）等等策略，每年穩穩地賺取報酬。

 

 

 

 

 

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