Back to Basics

回歸基本

by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

From both an investment point of view and in general, the world is a scary place at the moment. Political risk is high with diplomatic tension between major powers and the potential event risk arising out of US impeachment inquiries and Brexit. Indicators of economic activity are also showing warning signs, with PMI data showing contraction in manufacturing in places including the US, China, Japan and Europe while yield curves are still flat or have been recently inverted around the world. In these situations, we’ve often found that rather than worrying about potential turbulence, focusing on investment basics is the key to making rational decisions.

總體而言，從投資或一般的角度來看，當前世界都是一個令人恐懼的地方。由於大國之間的外交緊張，政治風險高，而美國彈劾川普的調查以及英國退歐也將帶來潛在事件風險。經濟活動指標也顯示出警告信號，PMI數據顯示，美國、中國、日本和歐洲等地的製造業收縮，而收益率曲線仍然持平或最近在世界範圍內已經反轉。在這種情況下，我們經常發現，與其擔心將要發生的動盪，還不如專注於投資基本原則才是制訂理性決策的關鍵。

 

 

US ISM Manufacturing Index

Source: YCharts

 

At the most basic level, investing is postponing consumption to put capital into return bearing assets. Across many asset classes there are many decades of data (and in some cases over a hundred years of data) to support the notion that holding reasonably diversified investments long enough will compound assets into multiples of the original investment. It is not necessary to “right” about short term events to be successful investors. Keeping this in mind, we define basics here as the simple actions and decisions that should be considered with every investment situation:

在最基礎的水平上，投資是種延遲消費，將資本投入能產出回報的資產中。在許多資產類別中，有些數十年的數據（有些還有超過一百年的數據）可以支持以下觀點：以足夠時長持有足夠合理的分散投資，會使資產複利增長為原始投資的倍數。要成為一個成功的投資者不需要對短期事件判斷“正確”。牢記這一點，我們在這裡將基礎定義為每種投資情況應考慮的簡單行動和決定：

 

 

Control what you can control

控制你可以控制的

There is no sense in trying to predict the unpredictable, whether it is policy actions by temperamental government figures or sudden breakdowns in complex relationships within the financial system. On the other hand, it is a simple matter to keep needless transaction costs low, minimize investment taxes, and maintain a mix of investment assets that lets you sleep at night.

試圖預測不可預測的事件是沒有意義的，無論是脾氣躁動的政府人物採取的政策行動，還是金融體系內複雜關係的突然崩潰。另一方面，將不必要的交易成本保持在較低水平，並使投資稅最小化且保持多種投資資產能使你夜裡睡得更踏實。

 

 

Always keep your investment goal in mind

始終牢記你的投資目標

Investment goals can be separated into two components- return and time frame. Return is dependent on what level of risk / reward that you are targeting, as well as the opportunity set in the market. Short time frames are for when you need the cash to meet some short-term obligations, such as housing or education payments and therefore cannot afford to take much investment risk. For long time frames, the goal is just to grow assets, so you can afford to ride through any potential up and downs and still be successful, as long as you don’t do anything rash.

投資目標可以分為兩個部分：收益和時間框架。投資回報取決於您所針對的風險/報酬水平以及市場中設定的機會。短期投資適用於當您需要現金來支付一些短期義務（例如住房或教育費用），因此承受不起很大的投資風險。在長期投資框架內，投資目標只是要增加資產，因此只要您不做任何輕率的事情，您就可以承受任何潛在的起伏並仍然成功。

 

 

Stick to your plan

堅持你的計劃

If you are thinking up of new investment strategies after your portfolio has already taken a large hit or after a major event in the financial markets, emotions may be responsible and could cause you to make a significant mistake. Similarly, if you are reluctant to immediately take pre-planned courses of action when something happens, it will likely ruin your entire investment strategy.

如果您在投資組合遭受重大打擊或在金融市場發生重大事件後考慮新的投資策略，那情緒可能會主導，並可能導致您犯下重大錯誤。同樣的，如果您不願在事情發生時立即採取預先計劃的行動方案，則可能會破壞您的整個投資策略。

 

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。該文章不應被視為投資建議。

 

 

 

 

 

---