Behavioral Finance and the Personal Investor

行為金融學及個人投資者

by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

It’s been 50 years since Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published Prospect Theory, which is considered the founding theory of behavioral economics and behavioral finance. In the intervening decades, their ideas have been expanded upon in subsequent studies, earning themselves and others a total three Nobel prizes in economics directly related to behavioral work. Most of the attention and academic impact of these studies are for challenging the assumptions of classical economics, particularly the notion that humans act rationally with respect to economic matters. However, understanding some of the studies and conclusions of these researchers can also make you a better investor. Below are some of the common behaviors that may hinder your investing decisions.

丹尼爾·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）和阿莫斯·特維爾斯基（Amos Tversky）出版的《展望理論》已有50年了，該理論被認為是行為經濟學和行為財務學的基礎理論。在隨後的幾十年中，他們的想法在隨後的研究中進一步擴展，使自己和他人共獲得了與行為工作直接相關的三項諾貝爾經濟學獎。這些研究的大部分注意力和學術影響力都在挑戰古典經濟學的假設，特別是關於人類在經濟事務上採取理性行動的觀念。但是，了解這些研究人員的一些研究和結論也可以使您成為更好的投資者。以下是一些可能會妨礙您進行投資決策的常見行為。

 

 

Loss Aversion

規避損失

 

Loss Aversion is the tendency for people to prefer avoiding losses over making equivalent gains and is a key component of prospect theory.

損失規避是指人們傾向於迴避損失而不是獲得相等水平的收益，並且是上述前景理論的重要組成部分。

 

Prospect Theory

前景理論

 

For risky choices leading to gains, people tend to be more risk averse than for risky choices to try to avoid losses.

對於可獲得收益的冒險選擇，人們傾向於規避風險，但對面對損失的冒險選擇，則比較不會規避風險。

 

Endowment Effect

稟賦效應

 

The Endowment Effect is the tendency for people to value something that they already possess over acquiring the same object when they don’t own it.

稟賦效應是人們傾向對已擁有某物品的評價，高於未擁有相同物品時的評價。

 

Regret Avoidance

規避後悔

 

People often will choose not to take action in order to minimize the possibility of regret. Sunk costs are a form of regret avoidance.

人們通常會選擇不採取行動，以最大程度地減少後悔的可能性。沉沒成本是避免後悔的一種形式。

All of these behaviors lead to actions that are significantly harmful to successful investing. Such actions include:

所有這些行為都會對成功投資產生重大的危害。類似的行為包括：

 

-Holding losing positions in hopes that one won’t actually have to take a loss.

-Not executing an investment allocation because one missed out on a slightly more favorable price.

-Avoiding looking at and taking actions on investments when the market moves against one’s -previous investment decisions.

-Changing your investment rationales to avoid taking action when something doesn’t go as expected

-繼續持有虧損部位，以期待最終不會實現虧損。

-不變動投資組合，因為錯過了稍微有利的價格。

-當市場走向與先前的投資決策背道而馳時，就不再關注投資或採取行動。

-當情況不如預期時，更改投資理念來避免採取行動。

 

 

Investors who are prone to these actions tend to be underinvested for most of the cycle and most highly exposed when the trend reverses. In order to prevent this from happening, it is important to reflect on your own behaviors and act against these impulses.

傾向於採取上述行為的投資者在整個週期的大部分時間內往往投資不足，並且在趨勢逆轉時承受的風險最大。為了防止這種情況的發生，重要的是反思自己的行為並採取應對衝動的措施。

 

 

Mr. Cheng is a managing partner at a Hong Kong based independent private investment office. This article reflects his personal views and not his firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

鄭先生為可承資本，一家總部設於香港的獨立投資辦公室之董事合夥人。這篇文章反映了他的個人而非公司觀點。該文章不應被視為投資建議。

 

 

 

 

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