by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

Entering the new year, it’s worthwhile to reflect on your investment performance in the past 12 months and also your investment strategy going forward. Investing can be a rewarding endeavor but also sometimes a lonely one as well. Unlike in sports and even business, where wins and losses are usually recognized and celebrated quickly, success in investing is often more about consistency and resilience, like running a marathon. This is due to the math of compounding investment returns and wealth, which rewards time spent in the market.

進入新的一年，值得回顧一下各位過去12個月的投資表現，以及你未來的投資策略。　投資可以是一種很有收穫的努力，但有時也是一種相當孤獨的努力。　與體育甚至商業領域不同，投資的成功通常不會像前者那樣會被迅速識別，投資的成功通常更多地取決於投資活動的一致性和韌性，就像跑馬拉鬆一樣。　這是由於投資回報和財富通過複利計算回饋了投資者在市場上花費的時間。　

 

Regardless of what your portfolio is doing in the short term, it’s always important to stick to a consistent strategy and remain engaged and invested. Along the way there will be numerous distractions and crises that may test your investment discipline. Here are some things to keep in mind to keep yourself mentally prepared for whatever comes your way:

無論您在短期內投資於什麼項目，堅持一致的策略並保持參與度和持續投資是很重要的。　在此過程中，會有許多干擾和危機可能會考驗您的投資紀律。　以下是一些需要牢記的事情，以使自己為遇到任何事情時做好心理準備：

 

1) Markets can be random.

Markets, by nature, are unpredictable. If something is likely to happen to raise or lower the price of a security, market participants as a group would have likely already moved the price with their buying and selling activity. Therefore, in the short term the market price tends to react mainly to events that are new and not anticipated. With this in mind, you should be prepared to ignore recent movements that have already happened and stop trying to predict prices in the near future, to avoid getting lost in the noise.

1) 市場可以是隨機的～變化莫測

市場本質上是不可預測的。　如果有可能發生某種事情來提高或降低證券的價格，作為一個整體的市場參與者或許早已通過他們的買賣活動改變了價格。　因此，在短期內，市場價格往往主要對新的和未預料到的事件作出反應。　考慮到這一點，您應該準備好忽略最近已經發生的動態，並停止嘗試在近/短期預測價格，以免迷失在噪音中。　

 

2) You are going to be wrong a lot and that’s OK.

If you had perfect foresight on your investment calls, you would soon become a billionaire. Unfortunately, investing isn’t that straightforward. Even your most well thought out and researched theses will be completely wrong from time to time. This is OK. To have an advantage in investing is like having an advantage in gambling. You need a small edge on the odds above random chance (ie. 50%) in order to outperform. To put too much emphasis on the times you happened to be wrong would be a mistake. Focus instead on your process and whether it is working as intended.

2）在投資過程中你會犯很多錯誤，但這沒關係

你以為對自己的投資想法有完美的遠見，你很快就會成為億萬富翁。　不幸的是，投資並不是那麼簡單直白。　即使您經過深思熟慮和研究的想法有時也會完全錯誤。　但是這沒關係。　在投資中擁有優勢就像在賭博中擁有優勢。　您需要在隨機機會（即 50%）以上的賠率上獲得小優勢才能表現出色。　過分強調你碰巧犯錯的次數是錯誤的。　您應該專注於您的投資流程以及它是否按你的預期行事。　

 

3) It’s better to base investment decision making on guidelines that you set before the fact, not afterwards.

Let’s say you have made an investment based on research on a company’s fundamentals and industry dynamics. If the stock price moves against you by 30% and you don’t know why, it’s natural to question whether your analysis missed something. However, unless you had decided beforehand to have a stop loss rule, to suddenly change your thesis at this point without the same level of attention to detail would be like flipping a coin to make your investing decisions. Alternatively, if your strategy is to cut losses and let winners ride and then you don’t sell because you don’t want to realize a loss, it would also be a mistake. The farther your actions take you from your original strategy, the more stressful it may be for you if things continue to go against you.

3) 最好根據事前而不是事後製定的指導方針做出投資決策

假設您基於對公司基本面和行業動態的研究進行了投資。　如果股價下跌 30%，而你不知道原因，那麼你會質疑你的分析是否遺漏了什麼是很自然的。　然而，除非你事先制定了止損規則，否則在此時在沒有同等程度的細節關注下突然改變你的策略，就像用拋硬幣來做出投資決定一樣。　或者，如果您的策略是減少損失並讓收益部分自由發展，如果您因為不想使損失變現而不出售，那也是錯誤的。　如果你的行動離你最初的策略越遠，而事情繼續對你不利的話，你的壓力就越大。　

 

Waiting for an event to occur and then reacting afterwards lets emotion get in the way of rational decision making regardless of whether the decision is made by an individual or a group. Instead, it is better to have a mental playbook at the inception of the investment decision of which likely and unlikely events to react to, and a set process of re-evaluating an investment at such a time. To go one step forward, you can also have rules for actions to take when you are wrong or find yourself in an unexpected situation. For example, for certain strategies, we want to be biased in the long term for having a high investment exposure in the market and low cash position. Having a rule that forces us to buy back into the market (or at least strongly consider buying) after our investment exposure is low based on certain triggers helps us to maintain investment discipline and to improve our mental state and resilience.

無論一個投資決策是由個人還是群體決定的，等待事件發生然後再做出反應會讓情緒阻礙理性決策。　相反，最好在投資決策一開始就制定一份心理手冊，對哪些可能和不太可能發生的事件做出反應，並在此時重新評估投資的一套流程。　進一步地，您還可以製定在錯誤或發現自己處於意外情況時採取行動的規則。　例如，對於某些策略，我們希望長期偏向於在市場上擁有高投資部位和低現金頭寸。　基於某些觸發因素，在我們的投資部位較低後，有一條規則迫使我們重新進入市場（或至少強烈考慮購買），這有助於我們保持投資紀律並改善我們的精神狀態和復原力。　

 

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not that of any firm, and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

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