by Charles Cheng, CFA

 

 

Previously we have talked about how investors should decide on an investing style suitable for their circumstances and abilities, such as becoming a long-term investor as opposed to a trader and vice versa.  This warrants further discussion, whether for a new investor deciding which direction to focus their efforts on, or for an experienced investor seeking to refine their existing strategy.  For this, it can be helpful to decide between several diametrically opposed approaches to investing and then tailoring your investment strategy accordingly.

之前我們討論過投資者應該如何選擇適合自己情況和能力的投資風格，例如成為長期投資者而不是交易員，反之亦然。　無論對於新投資者決定將精力集中在哪個方向，還是對於尋求完善現有策略的經驗豐富的投資者來說，這都值得進一步討論。　為此，在幾種截然相反的投資方法之間做出決定，然後相應地調整您的投資策略可能會有所幫助。　

 

Self-directed versus Advised

If you don’t have the time or can’t commit the effort to stay on top your own investments, then you can outsource the task to an advisor.  Even if you outsourced, you would still need to consider what strategies you would like the advisor to pursue or whether to use funds or individual securities.  And if you are self-directing your investment, these same considerations become even more dependent on your personal capacity.

自我指導與建議

如果您沒有時間或無法投入精力來掌控自己的投資，那麼您可以將任務委託給投資顧問。　即使進行委外後，您仍需要考慮您的顧問採取何種投資策略，或是投資於基金或單支股票。　如果您是主動型投資者，那麼您的個人能力將更直觀地影響上述需要考慮的因素。　

 

Active versus Passive

An active investor tries to beat the market while a passive investor is content earning the market return, which historically has been a perfectly valid strategy.  Deciding to be an active investor requires an honest evaluation of your own ability to generate investment outperformance.  Outperformance isn’t something that can be harvested like fish in a vast ocean but must be fought for by exploiting an advantage that millions of other traders and investors have not already taken.  Without this advantage, active investing becomes a distracting and often costly proposition (both in terms of transaction cost and mistakes). 

主動與被動

主動投資者試圖跑贏市場，而被動投資者則滿足於賺取市場回報，從歷史數據來看，後者一直是完全有效的策略。　決定成為積極的投資者需要對自己是否具有卓越的投資能力進行誠實的評估。　優異的表現並不是像大海裡的魚一樣可以撈穫的東西，而是必須透過利用數百萬其他交易者和投資者尚未獲得的優勢才爭取得來。　如果沒有這種優勢，主動投資就會變得毫無重點，而且往往代價高昂（無論是在交易成本還是判斷錯誤方面）。　

 

Securities Selection versus Market Timing

Within active management are the strategies of security selection and market timing, and obviously many individual investors try to do both.  Securities selection involves carefully choosing individual investments for a portfolio based on thorough analysis and research.  Market timing involves making investment decisions based on predictions about the future direction of financial markets.  From a mathematical point of view, market timing is more difficult to implement as it typically requires high hit rate on fewer opportunities versus a lower hit rate on many opportunities for stock or bond selection.  It is extraordinarily difficult to outperform by consistently timing the market, as numerous academic studies have shown, particularly if the trading decision is between equity and cash exposure due to the opportunity cost of being out of the market.  Thus, you would have to be very sure of your skill at timing to even consider doing it.  Note that this is different from deciding your market allocation based on your available investment opportunities or circumstances.

證券選擇與市場時機

主動投資的管理包括單只股票的選擇和進出市場的擇時，顯然許多個人投資者都兩者兼試。　 股票的選擇是指對該股票進行徹底的分析和研究，為其投資組合仔細選擇單個投資。　 進出市場時機則指根據對金融市場未來方向的預測做出投資決策。　 從數學角度來看，市場擇時更難實施，因為它通常需要在較少機會上獲得高命中率，而不是在許多機會上獲得較低命中率。　 正如許多學術研究表明的那樣，透過持續把握市場時機來超越市場是極難實現的。　特別需要考慮退出市場的機會成本～在股票和現金部位之間做轉換時。　 因此，你必須非常確定自己的投資技能，才能考慮這樣操作。　 請注意，這與您 (根據投資機會或情況) 決定您的市場配置是不同的。　

 

Fundamental Versus Quantitative Active Investing

Fundamental analysis involves assessing the intrinsic value of a security by examining various qualitative and quantitative factors related to the underlying company or asset.  Investors using fundamental analysis make investment decisions based on the perceived value of a security relative to its market price.  Quantitative analysis, on the other hand, relies on mathematical and statistical models to analyze historical data and identify patterns or trends.  Investors using quantitative analysis may develop algorithms or models that automatically execute trades based on predefined criteria.  This choice to practice one or other (or both) is straightforward as it depends on your skills and experience in either area.

基本面與量化主動投資

基本面分析涉及評估與標的公司或資產相關的各種定性和定量因素來評估證券的內在價值； 投資者使用基本分析得到的認知價格來和市場價格做比較而做出投資決策。　 另一方面，定量分析依賴數學和統計模型來分析歷史數據並識別模式或趨勢。　使用定量分析的投資者可以開發出基於預定義標準自動執行交易的演算法或模型。　選擇使用上述一種或另一種方法（或兩種一起）很簡單，因為這取決於您在這些領域的技能和經驗。　

 

Investing versus Trading

On the surface, everyone knows that trading means short term and investing is a longer-term activity.  Beyond time horizon, the two are also fundamentally different.  A trade in a stock means that you believe that the market has mispriced it and will correct the mispricing in the near term.  This implies that you have information not known by the market. There typically needs to be some sort of catalyst, like an earnings or news release for the market to move the price toward your view as there is no reason for it to do so by itself.  Investing in a company on the other hand is like being a part owner of the business.  While you would want to enter at a good price, the success of the investment depends on the economic performance of the company over several years rather than on information that you have over others.

投資與交易

從表面上看，每個人都知道交易是短期的行動，而投資是長期的。　除了時間範疇的不同，兩者也有其他根本的差異。　對股票進行交易味著您在當時相信市場對其內在定價錯誤，並將在短期內糾正錯誤定價。　這意味著您擁有市場未知的資訊。　而這通常需要某種催化劑，例如市場的收益或新聞發布，才能將價格推向您的觀點 (因為它本身沒有理由這樣做)。　另一方面，投資一家公司就像成為該企業的部分所有者。　雖然您希望以優惠的價格進入，但投資的成功取決於公司幾年來的經濟表現，而不是您掌握的相對於其他公司的資訊。　

 

An investor can focus on a specific style or incorporate several different ones into their portfolio so long as they are confident in their ability to execute the strategy.  It’s important to be disciplined as to which style of investing you are undertaking, as doing things like turning a short-term trade that didn’t work out into a long-term investment may have significant consequences.  And regardless of the type of strategy, the basics are the same, like controlling risk and transaction costs, managing taxes, making investment goals, and sticking to your plan.

只要投資者對自己執行策略的能力充滿信心，他們就可以專注於特定的風格或將幾種不同的風格納入他們的投資組合。　重要的是要嚴守自己所進行的投資風格，因為將無效的短期交易轉變為長期投資可能會產生重大損失。　無論策略類型如何，基本原理都是相同的，例如控制風險和交易成本、管理稅收、制定投資目標以及堅持計劃。　

 

 

This article reflects the personal views of the author and not any firm’s and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

 

 

 

 

 

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